김정은의 앞날을 예견한다

글쓴이 – 이인탁 변호사

평범한 사람의 앞일을 예견하기란 어려운 일이다. 그러나 김정은과 같이 특별한 위치에서 특이한 행동을 하는 사람의 앞날을 예견하는것은 평범한 사람의 그것보다 쉬운일이다. 인생 만사의 대부분은 사필귀정의 원리이 따라 종결되며 개개인의 미래는 그가 행하는 습관이 그의 미래를 결정짖기 때문이다. 이것을 “자업자득”의 원리로 도 해석할수 있다. 역사가 이것을 증명하고 있다. 우선 김정은의 입장을 분석한다.

​김정은 그의 인민에게 “우리의 적은 미국이다. 1950년 미국의 북침으로 6.25 전쟁을 이르켜 수많은 인민을 살해했고 아직도 우리 조선을 침략하려는 야욕을 버리지 못하고 매년 그의 앞잡이 남조선 패당과 함께 북침 연습훈련을 하고있다”. “이들로부터 우리를 지키기 위해서는 핵무기로 무장 해야한다”로 일관해 오고 있다. 북한 인민은 온갖 고통을 감내하면서 그들의 지도자 김정은의 말을 믿고 따르고있다. 즉, 그들의 숙적인 미국과 남조선으로 부터 자신들을 보호하기 위해서는 핵무장이 절대로 불가피한 보호막 이라는 선동 선전을 믿는다. 문재인-김정은의 판문점 회담을 전 세계가 지켜봤지만 북한 주민에게 만은 숨겨야했다.

​남조선과 평화회담을, 미국과 핵폐기회담을, 한다는 사실을 북한 인민에게 공표할수 없는것이 김전은의 입장이다. 김정은이 그의 권력을 유지하기위한 유일한 명분이 없어지기 때문이다. 미북회담 장소(싱가폴)와 날자(6월12일)까지 정해진 현 싯점에 김정은이 회담을 취소 할수 밖에 없는것도 그의 존재이유를 보존하기 위한 불가피한 선택이다. 김정은이 문재인을 통해서 트럼프를 만나겠다고 할때, 트럼프의 회담수락을 기대하지 않고 행한 말이다. 미국의 북폭을 피하기위한 임기응변조치였다고 분석한다. 트럼프의 회담수락은 김정은을 당황하게 했다. 트럼프는 문재인이 아니다. 문재인은 북한의 핵보유에 대해 이의가 없는 사람이다. 오히려 김정은을 도와 트럼프를 속이려는 계책에 동참하는 사람이다. 반면, 트럼프는 이들 둘의 감언에 놀아날 사람이 아니다. 오히려, 와전하고(Complete), 확인가능 (verifiable)하며,돌이킬수 없을정도 (Irreversible)의 핵시설해체(Dismantlement)를 요구할것이다. CVID가 그것이다.

​미북회담이 이루어젔다면 김정은은 트럼프가 요구하는 조건을 그대로 받아 드린다고 할것이다. 아니면 죽어야 하기때문이다. 그러나 김정은은 그약속을 지킬리가 없다. 미국의 북폭을 피하고자 미국의 요구를 받아드리는 시늉을 할 뿐이다.  김정일때 이미 써먹은 술책이다. 중수로 가동을 중단하고 프로토늄생산을 안하겠다고 약속하고  몰래 이를 생산 하다가 미국에 적발되어 KEDO (Korea Energy Development Organization)가 해체되는 지경에 이른 과거를 상기해야한다.

​그러나, 김정일 시대와 오늘날에는 큰 차이가 있다. 김정일 시대는 북한의 미싸일이 미본토를 위협하는 단계가 아니였지만, 오늘의 북한미싸일은 미국 본토까지 위협할정도로 발전된 상태다. 오늘의 미국은 북한의 핵보유를 용인할수 없는 입장에 놓여 있음을 알아야한다.  이와같이 극한적으로 대립되는 양국의 상충된 이해관계에서 김정은이 제거되어야 하는 시나리오는 귀납법적 논리다.  리비아의 카다피가 제거될수 밖에 없었든 역사적 사실을 상기한다.

​이러한 사실과 논리를 무시하고 자신의 무덤을 파는 김정은도 한심하지만, 문재인-김정은의 가짜평화회담에 현혹되어 희열하는 대한민국 국민이 더 불쌍하다.
문재인 뿐만 아니라 김정은의 남한내에서 인기도가 77%란다.  아마도 드루킹식 여론 일것으로 생각한다. 김정은이 제거되는 운명은 피할수 없는 수순으로 예견한다.

이인탁(변호사,Washington, D.C., USA) intaklee@intaklee.com

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